Karen Tang, an analyst at Deutsche Bank AG in Hong Kong, predicted the pace of year-on-year declines in Macau VIP game sales could slow in November and December.
“For November and December, we expect [VIP] GGR [Total Game Revenue] to see a year-over-year decline (15% to 18% year-over-year) due to slightly easier calculations,” Tang wrote.
This is a reference to the sequential year-over-year increase in VIP decline levels since June this year, and future November and December figures will facilitate year-over-year comparisons.
The bank noted that in October 2013, the share of the VIP baccarat segment of Macau casino operators was “very high” at 3.3%, while in November 2013 the share of VIP was “low” at 2.9%, and in December that year it was “normal” at 3.1%.
VIP sales totaled 19.1% in the third quarter of this year compared with a year earlier, according to data from the local regulator, the Game Inspection and Coordination Bureau.
Macau’s overall GGR declined by 3.7%, 3.6%, 6.1%, and 11.7% in the June-September period from a year earlier, government data showed. The September total was hit by an accelerated VIP decline.
VIP’s overall GGR contribution fell to less than 60% (56.4% of total casino game fortune revenue) in the third quarter.
Union Gaming Research Macao Ltd described VIP’s contribution in the third quarter as “…the lowest VIP mix by a large margin” since the Macau gaming liberalization that occurred earlier in the decade. 카지노사이트 모음
Tang said in a note: “In the first quarter of 2015, [VIP] GGR is still expected to decline (down 15% to 17% year-over-year) but at a lower rate.”
“So we expect October to periodically hit a low point of year-over-year decline in the GGR,” she added.